These questions will be answered, piece by piece, by analyzing every angle of the conflict with depth and analytical detachment:
MILITARY ANALYSIS: STAGING AND PROJECTION OF A WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN
VERIFIED FACTS AS OF JULY 4, 2025
On July 4, 2025, according to reports collected from international intelligence agencies and defense-focused media such as Janes Defence, Reuters, and the Middle East Institute, Israel is on high alert amid solid indications of an imminent large-scale confrontation with Iran. Various sources confirmed the arrival of critical shipments from the United States, including ammunition, guided systems, and next-generation military equipment—particularly the authorized transfer of GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs, capable of penetrating underground facilities such as those in Fordow. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) evacuated its personnel from Iran, while the U.S. ordered the immediate departure of its dual-national citizens, reinforcing perceptions of imminent escalation.
In parallel, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified his war rhetoric, declaring that “Israel and the United States are two faces of the same demon” and that “nuclear martyrdom is a path to redemption,” as reported by IRNA and amplified by PressTV. Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), demanded the elimination of Netanyahu and Trump as a condition to halt uranium enrichment, warning that “Tel Aviv and Washington will burn with fire and blood” if the so-called “nuclear red lines” are crossed, according to France24, Al Arabiya, and The Times of Israel.
Israeli military sources cited by Haaretz and confirmed by allied intelligence reports indicated that IDF Central Command units met with the CENTCOM chief on Israeli soil, including meetings with the Minister of Defense and the national security leadership. It was also confirmed that air defense batteries were reinforced, coordinated strike simulations carried out, and reservists activated along the northern front.
PROJECTION AND PROBABLE SCENARIOS BASED ON PRECEDENTS
Based on the history of the Israel-Iran conflict—including the destruction of the Osirak reactor (1981), the Natanz sabotage (2020), Mossad’s targeted assassinations, and joint U.S.-Israeli operations in Syria and Iraq—it is projected that Israel will not allow Iran to cross the nuclear threshold without a decisive military response. Historical patterns indicate that a preemptive strike, preferably strategic and precise, will be the first option if scheduled negotiations fail or if intelligence confirms Iran has reached 90% uranium enrichment.
Given that the U.S. has already evacuated civilian and diplomatic personnel, and that Mossad is operating covertly in Tehran, estimates based on evacuation patterns, military readiness cycles, and prior intelligence analysis suggest that hostilities could begin between July 7 and 14, with potential delays depending on weather conditions, diplomatic activity in Vienna, and any last-minute deterrence efforts. Should Iran initiate a preemptive action or provoke by partially closing the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's response will be immediate, supported tactically by the U.S. from naval bases in Bahrain, Diego Garcia, and Rota (Spain).
In that context, the conflict is projected to unfold in phases: a first wave of aerial strikes on nuclear and missile infrastructure, a second wave of asymmetric retaliation by Iran through proxies and missile saturation, and a third wave of cyberattacks and covert operations aimed at collapsing the Iranian military apparatus from within. If clerical leadership collapses or is removed, a short internal succession war is expected, followed by a power transition likely led by pragmatic IRGC elements or a provisional junta.
The estimated duration of open hostilities would be 2 to 4 weeks if limited to military objectives, but could extend to 6 or 8 weeks if regional escalation occurs with Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Shiite militias involved. The likely strategic winner would be Israel, due to its technological, organizational, international support, and superior intelligence capabilities, including deep infiltration of adversarial structures and advanced cyber-intelligence tools.
GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT
An Israeli victory and the collapse of the Ayatollah's regime would redefine the balance of power in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords would be consolidated with the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Oman, and possibly Algeria, while Turkey would likely adopt a symbolic containment position without operational support. The resistance axis formed by Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah would be dismantled, opening the door for Lebanon and Syria to reposition themselves under Saudi-Emirati influence.
At the energy level, the immediate impact would be a speculative spike in oil prices, potentially reaching $110 to $120 per barrel within the first 10 days, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, with the Strait of Hormuz secured by the U.S. and the U.K., and strategic reserves activated by the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the market could stabilize quickly. In the medium term, Iran's reopening to energy trade under a new government could even reduce global prices and enhance international competitiveness, enabling structural investments in clean energy and diversification for Europe.
Diplomatically, Russia will attempt to capitalize on the crisis to strengthen ties with the new Shiite leadership, offering military assistance and technical advice, while China will seek preferential access to reconstruction, infrastructure, and energy contracts, leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative. Nonetheless, Western political dominance will be consolidated if the U.S., the EU, and their allies condition Iran's financial reintegration on concrete political reforms, such as the establishment of a parliamentary republic, UN-monitored elections, and institutional guarantees for human rights and religious freedoms.
In this new context, Israel will emerge as a strategic stability hub beyond its military role. Its position as a deterrent against radical Shiism, provider of military and civilian technology, and mediator between the West and the Arab world will render it indispensable to regional security architecture. Countries like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia will accelerate diplomatic, commercial, and intelligence integration processes with Tel Aviv.
Israel, for its part, will be consolidated as an Economic, Political, and Military Power in the Middle East, although a pending conflict remains with another Islamist element in the region: Iraq. Close surveillance over Syria will also be necessary, as the current Syrian government maintains operational links with extremist elements, despite not being composed of former Taliban members. Tactical alliances along border zones justify ongoing monitoring of Syrian airspace and regional arms logistics corridors.
Another consequence of this victory is the definitive elimination of the terrorist and criminal group Hamas, which would be entirely dismantled. Without Iranian financial and logistical support, Hamas's arsenals will be depleted, its leaders without refuge, and its bases dismantled by the expanding reach of Israeli intelligence in Gaza. The collapse of Hamas would end the conflict in the Gaza Strip and open negotiations with Arab countries on the future of the region.
A deeper analysis reveals that Israel's victory over Iran will definitively consolidate its status as a regional power with global projection. Its technological-military dominance, effectiveness in covert operations, interoperability with the United States, and diplomatic leadership with moderate Arab states will place it as the hegemonic actor in the Middle East. This victory will also have a catalytic effect: allowing Israel to project economic influence in sectors such as cybersecurity, energy technologies, water management, defense, and agriculture, integrating its innovations into the new post-Iran regional order.
However, strategic attention will still be required in residual hotspots. In Iraq, the presence of pro-Iranian Shiite militias such as Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba will remain a challenge, especially if they attempt to reorganize as an Islamic resistance force. Israel, in coordination with the United States and local partners, must work toward the deactivation of these networks and support Iraq’s central government to prevent the reconstruction of a new hostile axis.
In Syria, volatility will persist. The Assad regime, closely tied to Iran and the Russian security apparatus, will need to redefine its strategy. Fear of an Israeli-Western intervention, should transfers of military technology or IRGC remnants be detected, will force Damascus to negotiate, especially under pressure from Turkey and Jordan. Continuous airspace surveillance and intelligence dominance will remain vital for Israel.
One of the most significant effects of Israel’s victory will be the structural elimination of Hamas. Deprived of Iranian support, the organization will crumble. This will create a new scenario in Gaza: a power vacuum that will permit a negotiation process mediated by Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, with the goal of integrating Gaza into the broader regional normalization process under the expanded Abraham Accords.
As a consolidated power, Israel will be able to facilitate infrastructure projects in Gaza, establish permanent humanitarian corridors, shared border control systems, and a roadmap for civil reconstruction, in exchange for complete demilitarization guarantees and international monitoring. The fall of Hamas may also enable the rise of pragmatic local leadership willing to cooperate with Israeli and Arab authorities for economic development, social stability, and lasting peace.
INTERNAL IMPACT IN IRAN AND ISRAEL AFTER THE CONFLICT
The collapse of the Iranian regime after a high-intensity war with Israel will trigger a historic transformation of the Islamic Republic’s political and social structure. According to forward-looking studies by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Brookings Institution, the power vacuum left by the fall of the Ayatollah could be exploited by three main actors: a military junta led by reformist IRGC generals, a transitional council formed by technocrats and exiles, or a residual religious authority attempting to maintain revolutionary continuity in some peripheral provinces.
In the first 30 days after the regime’s fall, mass demonstrations favoring democratic openness are expected, alongside local uprisings against remnants of religious power and a media offensive by the Iranian diaspora, especially from London, Paris, and Los Angeles. Cities like Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Ahvaz could become epicenters of civil restructuring, with the emergence of neighborhood councils, citizen committees, and non-aggression pacts among local clans. In Tehran, if security is guaranteed under a unity government, a constitutional referendum could be called within 90 days under UN and Arab League supervision.
In the medium term, the establishment of a secular or semi-secular parliamentary republic with institutional guarantees could attract foreign investment, ease multilateral sanctions, and encourage the return of hundreds of thousands of exiles. The top priorities will be stabilizing the currency, rebuilding critical infrastructure, and restoring universities, media, and the judicial system. If the transition includes a truth and reconciliation commission, it could prevent sectarian conflict between Shiites and ethnic minorities such as Kurds, Balochs, and Azeris.
In Israel, the victory will have a galvanizing effect on society. Critics of Netanyahu's government will likely temper their opposition if the military action is perceived as decisive in averting a nuclear catastrophe. The narrative of tactical and moral success will restore international prestige to the IDF, reinforce consensus around the doctrine of active defense, and reposition Israel as a global model of security and technology.
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ALLIED ACTORS POST-CONFLICT
In the wake of the regional reconfiguration following Israel's victory, Western allies must implement a multidimensional consolidation strategy that combines diplomatic engagement, financial support, technical assistance, and preventive containment. The goal will not only be to ensure the irreversibility of the Islamist regime's collapse in Iran but also to strengthen the emerging state architectures, avoiding power vacuums that could be exploited by rival powers or radical factions.
The United States should maintain its operational presence in the Gulf, securing free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing the safety of global energy routes. Simultaneously, it must provide security assurances to new moderate Iranian political actors in exchange for verifiable democratic commitments, fiscal transparency, and cooperation in counterterrorism efforts. Washington should also coordinate with the IMF and World Bank to structure a conditional aid package, with disbursements tied to progress in institutional reforms.
The European Union, for its part, should deploy a transition diplomacy strategy that blends economic incentives with demands for human rights, press freedom, and religious pluralism. Countries like France and Germany could lead election observation missions and help train a new technocratic leadership in Iran through scholarship programs, academic exchanges, and parliamentary assistance.
In the Arab sphere, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be pivotal: they can finance the reconstruction of key cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad, provided the new government formalizes diplomatic and commercial relations. Egypt and Jordan could mediate between Shiite and Sunni sectors, preventing sectarian escalations. The Arab League might recognize the new Iranian government under a clause of non-intervention and mutual respect.
Israel, in its new dominant position, must act wisely: it can establish shared security protocols with its neighbors, create a regional missile defense council, and promote commercial corridors integrating Gaza, the West Bank, and southern Lebanon into a cooperative, controlled economy. It may also offer humanitarian and civil technology to Iran under the principle of "shared security through development."
These coordinated actions will allow tactical victory to evolve into lasting strategic peace, consolidating a new post-ideological, stabilized, and growth-oriented Middle East.
In conclusion, the Israel-Iran war will not only mark the end of an era dominated by Shiite theocratic Islamism but will also redefine the very concept of regional and global security in the 21st century. It will be remembered as a confrontation between a model based on technology, imperfect democracy, and institutional innovation, and a regime founded on ideological messianism, clerical authoritarianism, and transnational criminal terrorism.
Israel's victory, besides dismantling a concrete nuclear threat, will reaffirm the relevance of active deterrence applied with surgical precision. It will project Israel as a new kind of regional superpower: compact, technologically superior, morally resolute, and diplomatically functional, capable of influencing well beyond its territorial and demographic scope.
This conflict will open the door to a structural transformation of the Islamic world, where civil societies—especially youth and women—will see in the fall of the Iranian regime a precedent and a possibility. If Iran transitions toward an open and peaceful parliamentary model, it could become a pole of Islamic renewal that shifts the narrative from hatred and jihad to one of progress, social justice, and shared sovereignty.
The West must be prepared not only to manage the postwar landscape but to integrate this new Middle East into a more inclusive, dynamic, and resilient global governance framework. This means overcoming neocolonial visions, fostering horizontal diplomacy, and supporting internal processes without supplanting their self-determination.
Israel, for its part, will have the opportunity and historic responsibility to lead a phase of regional reconstruction grounded in cooperation, shared development, and collective defense against future threats. If it fulfills this role with strategic generosity and long-term vision, it will not only ensure its own security but contribute decisively to global peace.
The Israel-Iran conflict will ultimately be remembered as the end of a nightmare and the beginning of a new chapter in Middle Eastern history—a chapter yet to be written, but one that can hold, if approached with wisdom and resolve, the keys to lasting peace and a new hope for millions.
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