The War in Ukraine and the Transformation of European Security

The war in Ukraine has profoundly reshaped Europe's security architecture, accelerating defense integration processes and redefining the role of the European Union (EU) on the global stage. This article analyzes the impact of the conflict, the challenges of European defense, and future scenarios.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the perception of threat has led Europe to an unprecedented strategic reconfiguration. The European Union (EU), traditionally fragmented in defense policy, has experienced greater convergence, reflected in initiatives such as the Strategic Compass, the reinforcement of the European Defence Fund (EDF), and closer military cooperation among its members and NATO.

Transformation of Threat Perception

Before the war in Ukraine, Europe had diverse views on security threats. While Eastern European countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states, had been warning about Russian expansionism since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, nations like Germany and France advocated for a strategy of dialogue with Moscow. However, Russia's aggression in 2022 created an unprecedented consensus: the need to strengthen European security and reduce military dependence on the U.S.

Historical Evolution of Threat Perception in Europe

Post-Cold War and NATO Expansion

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Europe experienced a period of strategic optimism. NATO expanded eastward, integrating countries that had once been part of the Warsaw Pact. During this time, the perception of threat varied significantly: while new NATO members saw Russia as a persistent danger, Western European nations focused on pragmatic relations with Moscow, centered on energy and economic cooperation.

The Annexation of Crimea and the Awakening of Eastern Europe

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a turning point in European security. For Eastern European countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states, this event confirmed their fears about Russian aggression. NATO responded by strengthening its military presence in the region through the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative. However, in Western Europe, diplomatic containment and energy dependence—particularly Germany’s commitment to projects like Nord Stream 2—remained dominant narratives.

2022: The War in Ukraine and the Convergence of Threat Perception

On February 24, 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine radically transformed Europe’s security posture. Germany, which had previously taken a cautious stance, announced a historic increase in military spending through the "Zeitenwende." Sweden and Finland, which had maintained neutrality for decades, applied for NATO membership, consolidating a more cohesive defense bloc.

Implications for European Security Strategy

Reconfiguration of Common European Defense

One of the most notable impacts of this transformation has been the strengthening of the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). The European Defence Fund and the pursuit of strategic autonomy have gained prominence, with initiatives such as Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the reinforcement of the European Defence Agency.

Increased Military Spending and NATO's Reconfiguration

European countries have significantly increased their defense budgets, aligning with NATO’s 2% GDP target. This shift has led to a greater military presence on the Alliance’s eastern flank, with additional deployments in Poland and Romania. Additionally, Europe’s defense industrial base has been strengthened through the production of new weapons systems and the modernization of capabilities.

Challenges and Future Perspectives

Despite the strengthening of European security, several challenges remain. Political unity within the EU continues to be a challenge, with disagreements over reliance on the U.S. and the need for an independent European defense force. Moreover, balancing deterrence and diplomacy with Russia remains a key issue on the European agenda.

In conclusion, the transformation of threat perception in Europe has generated a structural shift in continental security. The convergence in assessing the Russian threat has reinforced military cooperation and accelerated the process of strategic autonomy, establishing a new paradigm for Europe’s defense in the coming decades.

Key Initiatives for European Defense

Strategic Compass: Toward a Coordinated Defense

The Strategic Compass, approved in March 2022, sets a roadmap to strengthen EU security and defense in a context of emerging threats. Its objectives include:

• The creation of a 5,000-strong rapid deployment force to respond to crises.
• Strengthening the EU Intelligence Analysis Centre to improve information coordination.
• Greater cooperation with NATO, ensuring complementarity and avoiding redundancies.

European Defence Fund (EDF): Investment in Military Capabilities

The EDF has been a cornerstone in financing joint defense projects. With a budget of €8 billion until 2027, this fund facilitates:

• The development of innovative defense technologies, such as drones, cybersecurity, and advanced weaponry.
• The integration of European military industries to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
• The promotion of an industrial and technological base that guarantees Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Key Figures in the New Security Landscape

Increase in Defense Spending

Defense budgets have risen sharply across Europe:

• Germany announced a special €100 billion fund in 2022, raising its military budget to 2% of GDP.
• France strengthened its defense budget, targeting €413 billion between 2024 and 2030.
• Poland plans to allocate more than 4% of its GDP to defense in 2024, making it one of NATO’s top military spenders.

Strengthening Military Coordination

• NATO Deployments: 40,000 additional troops have been mobilized in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Expansion of Military Bases: The U.S. has established new infrastructures in Poland and Romania.
• Joint Military Exercises: NATO and the EU have increased the frequency and scale of military drills, enhancing interoperability.

EU and NATO Expansion

European security has taken on a new dimension with NATO expansion:

• Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership, strengthening security in the Baltic region.
• Their accession represents a key geopolitical shift, reinforcing Europe’s northern flank and increasing deterrence against Russia.

The war in Ukraine has forced Europe to rethink its defense strategy at an accelerated pace. The Strategic Compass and the European Defence Fund are just the beginning of a transformation process aimed at ensuring the continent’s stability. However, challenges persist, including the need to balance cooperation with NATO, harmonize defense policies among member states, and consolidate a competitive defense industry. Europe faces a crossroads: strengthening its strategic autonomy or continuing to rely on external alliances for security.

Toward an Integrated European Defense

Advances in Military Integration

Europe has taken significant steps toward greater strategic autonomy in defense and security. This evolution has been driven by various initiatives aimed at strengthening cooperation among EU member states and reducing reliance on NATO and the U.S. for security.

Main Military Integration Initiatives

PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation)

PESCO is a cornerstone of European defense integration. Since its launch in 2017, it has led to over 60 defense projects covering intelligence, cybersecurity, and advanced combat systems. Key projects include:

• EUFOR Crisis Response Operation Core (CROC): Establishment of a rapid deployment force.
• European Secure Software Defined Radio (ESSOR): Improved interoperability in military communications.
• Military Mobility: Facilitating the rapid deployment of troops and equipment across Europe.

European Defence Fund (EDF)

With a budget of €8 billion until 2027, the EDF is designed to strengthen research and development of advanced military technologies. Key funding areas include:

• Development of next-generation autonomous systems and drones.
• Innovation in artificial intelligence applied to defense.
• Enhancements in cybersecurity and electronic warfare.
• Creation of hypersonic weapons systems.

Industrial Defense Cooperation

Collaboration among Europe’s leading defense industries has been crucial to strengthening the EU’s technological and operational base. Notable projects include:

• Future Combat Air System (FCAS): Led by Germany, France, and Spain to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet.
• Main Ground Combat System (MGCS): A German-French initiative to develop a next-generation battle tank.
• Eurodrone: A medium-altitude, long-endurance drone system to improve European surveillance capabilities.

Challenges and Divergences in Military Integration

• Geopolitical Differences Among Member States
• Resistance to Loss of Sovereignty
• Unequal Capabilities and Lack of Standardization

Europe’s path to strategic autonomy remains complex, but the transformation of its security architecture is already reshaping the global defense landscape.

Future Perspectives

The path toward greater military integration in Europe will continue to face challenges but also offers key strategic opportunities:

• Greater Defense Autonomy: The consolidation of projects such as PESCO and the EDF will allow the EU to reduce its dependence on the U.S.

• Strengthening Deterrence Against External Threats: A more unified defense system will improve crisis response capabilities.

• Gradual Integration with NATO: Although strategic autonomy is a priority, Europe will continue to rely on the Atlantic Alliance in the short and medium term.

Ultimately, advancements in European military integration represent a key step toward greater strategic autonomy, although structural and political obstacles persist that must be addressed to consolidate an effective and coordinated defense system.

Impact of the War in Ukraine on European Defense

The war in Ukraine has triggered a profound and multidimensional transformation in European defense. Before the conflict, the European Union (EU) and its member states exhibited heterogeneous stances regarding Russia, reflected in differences in their energy, trade, and security policies. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated key trends that have redefined Europe’s strategic landscape and its relationship with NATO and the United States.

Strategic Unity: Europe Facing a Common Enemy

Before the conflict, Europe was divided in its perception of Russia. While countries such as Poland and the Baltic states had long warned about the Russian threat, others, like Germany and France, advocated for dialogue and cooperation. However, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point. The EU responded with unprecedented firmness, adopting economic and military sanctions, reducing its energy dependence on Moscow, and increasing military support for Kyiv.

European countries have strengthened their security cooperation, promoting an active deterrence policy against Russia. Traditionally neutral Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership, consolidating the cohesion of the Western bloc. This shift demonstrates an evolution in the European security perception, where strategic unity has become a priority for ensuring regional stability.

Strengthening the Transatlantic Bond: NATO and the EU’s Strategic Autonomy

The war has reinforced NATO’s role in European defense. The United States has increased its military presence on the continent, deploying additional troops in Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states. The Alliance’s military deterrence has been strengthened through joint exercises and the modernization of strategic capabilities.

However, Washington has urged the EU to take greater responsibility for its own security. The war has revived the debate on European strategic autonomy, championed by France and other actors who believe Europe must reduce its dependence on the U.S. in defense matters. The creation of the EU’s Strategic Compass, adopted in 2022, reflects this ambition, establishing concrete goals to enhance the EU’s military response capacity.

Transformation of German Policy: The End of the "Culture of Restraint"

One of the most significant changes in European defense has been the transformation of Germany’s security policy. Historically reluctant to military intervention due to its pacifist past, Berlin has broken with decades of restraint doctrine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the "Zeitenwende" (turning point), committing to increasing defense spending above 2% of GDP and creating a special fund of 100 billion euros to modernize the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr).

Additionally, Germany has sent heavy weaponry to Ukraine, including air defense systems, Leopard 2 tanks, and artillery. This change marks a historic shift in German foreign policy and underscores its role as a key military power in European defense.

Geopolitical Consequences and Future Challenges

The impact of the war in Ukraine has generated a series of geopolitical consequences that will continue shaping European defense in the coming years:

• NATO Expansion: The accession of Finland and Sweden strengthens the security of the Alliance’s northern flank and complicates Russia’s military strategy in the Baltic region.

• Increased Military Spending: Many European states have increased their defense budgets, modernizing their armies and reinforcing their deterrence capabilities.

• Energy Challenges: Independence from Russian energy has accelerated investments in renewable energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import infrastructure.

• Tensions with Moscow: Confrontation with Russia has led to a reconfiguration of diplomatic and economic relations, with Europe adopting a tougher stance.

• Development of the European Defense Industry: The need for greater self-sufficiency in weaponry has boosted cooperation in joint military projects and the production of advanced systems within the EU.

The war in Ukraine has forced Europe to rethink its security, consolidating alliances, redefining strategies, and increasing military response capabilities. As the conflict continues, the evolution of European defense will remain a determining factor in the continent’s stability and global geopolitical balance.

Future Scenarios for European Defense

European defense is at a critical turning point. The growing perception of external threats, the transformation of the global order, and the reconfiguration of alliances have led European states to debate their strategic future. Three scenarios emerge as possible paths of evolution: progressive integration with NATO, fragmentation with multiple speeds, or the creation of European military autonomy.

Progressive Integration with NATO as the Central Pillar

This scenario envisions strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities without abandoning NATO’s primacy as the guarantor of transatlantic security. EU member states would increase their defense investments, modernize their arsenals, and improve interoperability with the Atlantic Alliance’s structures.

Advantages:

• Greater transatlantic cohesion: Keeping the U.S. as a key actor deters global threats and reinforces stability.

• Resource optimization: Complementarity with NATO reduces duplication of military capabilities and facilitates interoperability.

• International legitimacy: NATO’s continuity as a security axis provides credibility to Europe’s stance in global conflicts.

Challenges:

• Structural dependence: This model does not resolve Europe’s subordination to U.S. strategic decisions.

• Limitations in strategic autonomy: Defense policy would remain conditioned by Washington’s interests.

• Fragmentation of investments: Some countries might prioritize NATO contributions over European initiatives.

Fragmentation and Multiple Speeds

This scenario envisions a division within European defense, with a core group of countries (France, Germany, Spain) pushing for a more integrated defense policy, while others, such as Poland and the Baltic states, continue relying on NATO and the U.S. This divergence could generate tensions within the EU and hinder the construction of a unified European defense.

Advantages:

• Flexibility in defense: States can choose their level of participation according to national interests.

• Advancement of strategic autonomy: The integrationist core could consolidate capabilities without waiting for unanimity.

• Compatibility with NATO: The division would allow some countries to remain aligned with the U.S., maintaining NATO’s deterrent.

Challenges:

• Loss of cohesion: A divided Europe in defense matters could weaken its geopolitical position.

• Operational challenges: Different levels of commitment would hinder coordinated responses to military crises.

• Increased bureaucracy and costs: Coexisting structures could generate inefficiencies in procurement and deployments.

Towards European Military Autonomy

In this scenario, Europe would develop its own defense structure, gradually reducing its dependence on the U.S. This model would require massive investment in military capabilities, infrastructure, research and development, and greater harmonization among member states in acquisitions and deployments.

Advantages:

• Strategic sovereignty: Europe would make independent decisions in security and defense, free from external subordination.

• Strengthening the defense industry: Autonomy would enhance Europe’s industrial base and technological innovation.

• Greater projection capacity: A militarily independent EU could intervene more effectively in regional and global conflicts.

Challenges:

• Financial cost: Creating fully autonomous defense would require significant increases in military spending.

• Political resistance: Some member states may oppose this model for historical, political, or strategic reasons.

• Risk of tensions with the U.S.: Moving away from NATO could strain transatlantic relations and reduce Washington’s support in crises.

The future of European defense will depend on how member states balance their security needs with their aspiration for autonomy. The final model may combine elements from these approaches. Regardless of the path chosen, European security will never be the same again.